Tuesday, June 26, 2012

Reelection Uber Alles

Barack Obama is all in. He's made his bet and what he has wagered is the remainder of his career as an elected office holder.

Here's the situation: In 2008, Mr. Obama did very well on election day with college educated women and independents. He received 43% of votes from whites, as well. This November, however, he will not duplicate the success he enjoyed with these groups four years ago. The president will draw a smaller percentage in each of the above-listed categories. Obama has lost lots of those voters and he knows he won't be getting them back. Their allegiance largely depended upon the performance of the economy, and he royally fumbled that ball when it was tossed in his direction. Consequently, six trillion dollars in national debt later, and desperate for a second term, he is counting on reenergizing his base, and hoping GOP members are sufficiently unenthusiastic about Mitt Romney and show up on election day in small numbers.

Here's the plan:  Amp up gays, Latinos and extreme leftists to compensate for the votes he's lost among whites, college educated women and political independents.  Hispanics are especially important as they may make the difference in several swing states.

Here's the gamble:  American voters, for the most part, hug the political center. In order to energize the gays, the browns and the liberals, he has taken very unpopular positions with the majority of voters in the U.S. in relation to two hot-button topics -  Obamacare and Arizona's immigration laws. Polls repeatedly show that likely voters dislike the former and approve of the latter.  Rather than hug the center, and try to partner with Arizona to resolve that state's illegal alien dilemma however, Mr. Obama has seized upon the announcement of the decision by the U.S. Supreme Court to attempt to create a de facto amnesty. Upon learning that the Court had upheld a key provision of SB 1070, allowing law enforcement officers to question a suspect about immigration status, he promptly had the Department of Homeland Security discontinue the 287g federal government/state police joint program in Arizona. He's made it very clear. Arizona will receive no help getting rid of illegal aliens from the federal government.

Here's the problem:  What he's doing is unfair. Most members of Code Pink, the National Council of La Raza, Act Up!, and MEchA probably don't think so, but they aren't representative of the American mainstream. Joe Average doesn't like the prospect of one million illegal aliens being given work permits when unemployment is above 8%. He feels sympathy for a state inundated with illegal alien crime and related expenses. In addition, many moderates have qualms about the fashion in which his healthcare plan was ramrodded through congress in such a partisan manner.

Here's the question:  Will the president succeed in exciting enough voters to compensate for the votes he's already lost because of the economy AND make up for the votes he'll lose because of taking the unpopular positions on immigration, health care and gay marriage?

Here's reality:  Few people consider him a moderate or "uniter" anymore, as he presented himself in '08. After his actions relating to immigration and healthcare, there's no going back. With about 130 days until the election, he is what he has presented and there is no wiggle room. As a matter of perception, Barack Obama is the Far Left.

Will Americans elect someone this far out of the political mainstream? Who knows, maybe the Harvard grad has calculated correctly but at this point, there's no going back. He either wins as Barack The Champion Of Government Controlled Medicine And Amnesty For Illegal Aliens ... or he retires to a life of high priced speaking engagements and book tours. Make no mistake, however. As of yesterday, Mr. Obama is all in.

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