Fortunately (depending upon your perspective), we have a model to inspect: The State of California. When Ronald Reagan advocated for and signed the Immigration Reform Control Act of 1986, 2.7 million illegal aliens were granted legal residency. Of those, 1.9 million were residing in Los Angeles County. Have these people, most of whom had children and went on to become citizens, moved in the direction of limited government principles and started electing Republicans?
Here are some facts:
- When Ronald Reagan ran in in 1984, two years before he signed an amnesty bill, he received 37% of votes cast by Latinos.
- When George H.W. Bush ran in 1988, two years after a Republican signed an amnesty bill, he received 30% of votes cast by Latinos.
- California easily has the nation's largest Hispanic population. No other state comes close, and many current Latino California voters were beneficiaries of the 1986 amnesty or are the children of those who got amnestied in. And Republicans have lost California in every presidential election since 1988.
- In 2008, John McCain advocated for a "comprehensive immigration reform" package that was identical to the one proposed by his opponent. John McCain received 31% of votes cast by Latinos in that election.
- In 2010, a year when Republicans won in huge numbers across the country, Meg Whitman ran as a Republican for the governorship of California. She advocated for the same type of amnesty that had been proposed by John McCain. She lost the election while receiving 34% of the votes cast by Latinos.
- In 2010, Carly Fiorina professed her support of the DREAM Act when she ran for the senate. She lost the election while receiving 31% of votes cast by Latinos in California.
- California, with its considerable Latino voting population, does not currently have a single Republican who holds statewide office.
- George W. Bush (a notable and well known amnesty advocate), who is touted as the poster boy for Republican success with Latino voters, never received more than 44% of Latino votes in any single election.
It's real simple. Latinos in the United States overwhelmingly support Democrats. They always have. This is nothing new. The large majority of Hispanics have voted against Republican candidates who have supported amnesty and against those who oppose it. They have voted for Democrats when Republicans had just passed an amnesty and voted for Democrats when Republicans voiced support for border security.
For more information about Latino voting patterns in presidential elections, dating back to 1960, please click on the following link: http://www.hispanicvista.com/hvc/Opinion/Guest_Columns/102504schmal.htm